|
|
|
6/4/2008 |
They’re falling like Stooges.
Looks like we’ve
finally got us a presidential race. Although Hillary hasn’t quite acknowledged
it yet, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, facing Republican John
McCain in November. For the next five months, you will be bored to tears and frustrated
to madness by the pundits, bloggers and bigots, as well as by the candidates
themselves. Save yourself all that distraction. Take this to the bank (and the
betting window): Obama will win. It won’t even be close. For better or
worse, he’ll be taking the oath of office next January and if you don’t
like it, all you’ll be able to do is wait for 2012. Here are ten reasons
(but by no means the only ones) why:
1.
Obama will
remind voters of John and Robert Kennedy; McCain will remind voters of Bob
Dole.
2.
Obama is young
and passionate. McCain is 71 years old (72 by inauguration day) and looks every
day of it.
3.
Obama connects
with his audiences on an emotional level. McCain connects with his on an
intellectual level. In politics, emotional beats intellectual every time.
4.
The Democratic
base is energized and enthusiastic; the Republican base is dispirited and
ambivalent.
5.
The current Bush
administration is made up of chimpanzees and criminals. They’ve taken us
from peace and prosperity to war and recession. McCain wants to continue Bush’s
policies on
6.
Anyone who
refuses to vote for Obama because he’s black wouldn’t vote for a Democratic
presidential candidate no matter who it was.
7.
Obama will make
some deal with Hillary to unite the Democrats. That may be the Vice Presidency
or a Supreme Court appointment (you Republicans better hope for VP!) or an
effort to repay the debt she’s racked up from her campaign. The deal will
also include some provision for keeping Bill under wraps (a desert island
getaway with Gina Gershon might do it). That whole Hillary process will be an
excellent test for how well Obama can handle all the other difficult demagogues
he’ll encounter as president.
8.
People who tell
you they are Democrats who are so pissed off at the way Hillary was treated during
the campaign that they’re going to vote for McCain are lying (or even
more likely, are talk radio drones who won’t even remember which day they’re
supposed to break away from the radio to go vote.) No rabid Hillary fan is
going to vote for McCain, if for no other reason than Hillary fans are
pro-choice and McCain will get Roe v. Wade overturned.
9.
Obama obviously
has to win a few more electoral votes than Al Gore or John Kerry. But Bush has
so badly damaged the country and the national Republican brand that there are
many previously red states that are ripe for blue picking:
10. The so-called values issues that Bush used to win his
two elections (like gay marriage and patriotism) will pale in comparison this
time around in favor of a few values we’ve been missing for the last
eight years: judgment and competence.
There’s
only one area where McCain looks like a winner over Obama. The spousal contest.
Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain are both delightfully hot, but Michelle (like
many Democratic wives) has caused some controversy, while Cindy McCain is a
multimillionaire who owns enough beer to keep us all loaded for the 100 years
her husband wants to keep us in Iraq.